Potential U.S. government shutdown could dent investor confidence

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Potential U.S. government shutdown could dent investor confidence
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Street fears end of September closure will add to persistent economic concerns

A potential U.S. government shutdown at the end of September could add to worries about the economy going into year-end and beyond, investors said.

Past shutdowns’ impact on U.S. stocks, meanwhile, has been slight: the S&P 500 has fallen by an average of 0.4% in the week before a shutdown, and gained a total of 0.1% over the length of all shutdowns since 1976, according to CFRA Research data. Resilient growth in the face of higher interest rates has helped power the S&P 500 to a nearly 16% gain this year, though the index is off some 4% from its July highs following a surge in Treasury yields that has spooked some investors.

Goldman Sachs estimates that such a reduction would amount to a cut of 0.6% from the current U.S. gross domestic product. Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for Wells Fargo Investment Institute, believes any shutdown would likely be protracted as Republicans and Democrats begin positioning themselves for the presidential and congressional elections next year.

The White House last month said it was working with Congress to hammer out a short-term funding measure to avoid a shutdown while longer-term spending talks continue.

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