The Bank of Canada should be careful about placing too much emphasis on the unemployment rate, say CIBC economists
this month to further cool the economy and inflation. The unemployment rate fell to five per cent, one of the lowest readings on record.
What has changed is that the hours that people actually work are well below pre-pandemic levels because of higher levels of absenteeism. That means the actual supply of labour that the economy is getting from a 5 per cent jobless rate is “noticeably less” than it would have been before 2020. Because of the lost hours, the economy is currently getting labour supply equal to a 6 per cent jobless rate, pre-pandemic.
Sectors where the work can’t be done at home, such as education, manufacturing and construction, have been hit the hardest by this shortfall. And when employers have to hire more staff to cover for those who are away, it further tightens the labour market and increases wage pressures.
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