ICYMI: Recession coming in for Canada and the world, more economists warn — via financialpost Canada recession economy
The drumbeats warning of a coming recession are getting louder and more persistent.
“The risks of a 2022 recession are significantly higher than I would have judged six or nine weeks ago,” Summers told Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” with David Westin. “If the economy did go into recession in the next six to nine months, then you’d probably see a reduction in inflationary pressures.”
“Since we made this forecast, however, it has been U.S. data that have surprised to the downside the most,” IIF economists said in a note Thursday. The risk of global recession has been compounded by weak data out of Europe. Factory orders in Germany have fallen to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, aside from the sharp drop in 2020, while German consumer confidence has sunk below the levels of the initial COVID shock, “which is remarkably bad,” they said.
Analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc see major economies, including Canada, entering recession over the next 12 months, Bloomberg reports. Home sales fell 9% in May from the month before, shaving 0.1% off GDP, he said. “With the business surveys for June also showing a loss of broader momentum, the economy may be slowing even sooner than we anticipated,” said Brown.Deloitte Canada’s chief economist Craig Alexander thinks that a period of stagflation, where growth slows, but inflation stays relatively high, is more likely.
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