Posthaste: Here's what will convince the Bank of Canada to hold the line on rates

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Posthaste: Here's what will convince the Bank of Canada to hold the line on rates
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CIBC economists think the Bank of Canada will be tracking labour market data to make decisions on interest rates. Find out more.

Activate your Online Access NowMany Canadians breathed a sigh of relief when the Bank of Canada signalled at its last interest rate meeting on Jan. 25 that it wouldSo far, the bank has raised rates 425 basis points — a historic run in speed and trajectory — to 4.5 per cent from 0.25 per cent in March 2022. It has said it needed to do so to get a handle on inflation, which peaked at 8.1 per cent in June 2022, well outside the bank’s target range of one to three per cent.

, a measure of how much the economy is producing against how much it can produce. Instead, he believes the Bank of Canada will keep its eye fixed on labour data.Article contentoutput, the bank is focused on tightness in one key input: Canada’s labour market has put up some pretty stunning numbers during the past few years, which has only fuelled inflation and forced the central bank to end its cheap-money policies.Article content

The unemployment rate currently stands at five per cent, just above its historic low of 4.9 per cent in July 2022. Canada’s economy is considered to be in full employment, meaning all those who wish to work can find a job. A higher unemployment rate would signal some give in the labour market. The 10-year average for the jobless rate is 6.8 per cent.

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