Survey of economists underscores questions on how much the central bank can diverge from the U.S. Federal Reserve
The Bank of Canada will trim interest rates to 4.75% on June 5, according to three-quarters of economists in a Reuters poll which showed three further cuts this year, with the last one hanging on a knife’s edge.
Just over 75% of economists in a May 23-29 poll, 22 of 29, predicted the BoC would cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.75% on June 5. Financial markets have priced in slightly more than a 60% chance of that. Six of 29, including two of the top Canadian banks, TD and Scotiabank, said the BoC would wait until the July 24 meeting, when it releases its next quarterly set of forecasts. One said it would wait until September.
Fourteen of 29 economists forecast rates at 4.00% at year-end and one said 3.75%. The remaining 14 said 4.25% or higher by end-2024. Average home prices more than tripled in nearly two decades and surged over 50% during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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