The US Bureau of Labor Statistics has released a preliminary revision of payroll numbers, showing a significant reduction in net job gains by 818,000...
released a preliminary revision of payroll numbers,Ryan believes the payroll revision"doesn't change the Fed outlook very much." He notes that the central bank is aware the labor market is slowing and that while Fed officials previously thought the labor market had undergonefrom a pace of 240,000 to 150,000," this revision paints a picture of the labor market being"fairly steady over the past 8 to 16 months.
With Chair Powell set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, Ryan finds that"at this point there's not much he can say about... where the present course is here or what are cuts gonna be going forward." Ryan expects Powell will focus on breaking down the Fed's meeting minutes and reaffirming their data-dependent approach to monetary policy decisions.
So it, it, we've triggered the Psalm rule which obviously, you know, there's been, there's been a lot of being spilled about that. So that speaks to a bit more of a labor supply story for the, as the reason for the rise of the unemployment rate and less about maybe a, a demand story ie you know, contract demand for labor at this point.There's, but there was a bit, a bit of a recent rise uh due to specific factors around Hurricane Barrel, that's now starting to come off in the jobless claims data.
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