As sports leagues go dark and series production halts, some analysts predict cord-cutting will accelerate as the value proposition 'starts to fall apart.'
Comcast is forecast to lose 1.67 million pay TV subscribers in 2020, compared with 733,000 in 2019, per Bernstein analyst Paul Supino.
Bullish Wall Street analysts highlight that news and entertainment provided by pay TV operators are key sources of information and distraction for consumers locked up at home, with Comcast, for example, on March 30 saying that linear TV consumption in its homes has increased by 4 hours to 64 hours per week and video-on-demand usage has hit "record highs." Such increased usage could potentially slow down pay TV subscriber losses, which had in 2019 hit an all-time high of 4.
Some on Wall Street have increased their pay TV subscriber loss forecasts for 2020 amid the virus crisis. Supino said his new "base case" scenario assumes "accelerating video subscriber losses in 2020" amid rising job losses due to the expected recession. As a result, his estimate is for 1.5 million incremental subscriber losses in the second quarter due to the virus crisis compared with his previous forecast.
For all of 2020, Supino now forecasts Comcast to lose 1.67 million pay TV subscribers, compared with 733,000 in 2019, Charter to lose 1.08 million , Altice to lose 230,000 , AT&T to lose nearly 2.2 million and Dish to lose 695,000 video subscribers.
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