Our Post-Iowa Primary Forecast Is Up, And Biden’s Chances Are Down

NEW: FiveThirtyEight's post-Iowa primary forecast is up—and Joe Biden’s chances are down.

The model shows former Vice President Joe Biden’s chances of winning a majority of pledged delegates being halved — from 43 percent before Iowa to 21 percent now.

of the credit for winning Iowa in the model , they haven’t improved by as much as you think. That’s because, as I Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s majority chances are also slightly up, according to our model, having improved to 10 percent from 5 percent before. That’s because in a more chaotic field, with at least one of the front-runners potentially falling back into the pack, hercould eventually give her some opportunities, even though none of the next three states look especially promising for her.

on the probability that each candidate eventually wins the various vote measures that Iowa tracks. The Upshot now gives Buttigieg about a 98 percent chance of winning the most state delegate equivalents — the measure that the media has traditionally used to declare Iowa winners , although itMeanwhile, The Upshot gives Sanders a greater than 99 percent chance to win the first alignment vote — the candidate that voters initially lined up with when they entered their caucus sites.

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