Here are FiveThirtyEight's final estimates of each candidate’s chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates and their chances of winning Iowa ahead of tonight’s vote.
— so we could have a better sense of any last-minute movement in the race. But looking at the four new polls we do have, Sanders’s chances have improved from 36 percent Friday to 41 percent as of 3 p.m. Monday. Here’s a quick look at the last four surveys of Iowa released on Sunday and earlier today:found Sanders leading by 7 percentage points over Warren, 28 percent to 21 percent, with Biden and Buttigieg tied at 15 percent.
While it’s somewhat surprising Buttigieg was in the lead, as he hasn’t led in other recent polls, our model basically had Buttigieg and Sanders tied at 19 percent instead once we adjusted for house effects, as this pollster has tended to give Sanders lower marks than other pollsters.and found Sanders in first with 22 percent. But the field as a whole was very clustered, with Warren just behind at 19 percent while Biden and Buttigieg each had 18 percent.
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