The polls don't support the Democrats' new level of confidence
is marginally less sanguine and says the GOP wins control in 74 out of 100 simulated 2022 elections.
The size of the Republican House margin varies by forecast, but it is as likely that the GOP will win a slim majority as it is likely that it will secure upward of 230 seats, a margin similar to the 235 seats Democrats won in 2018. Doubtless, the left will salve its wounds by claiming that Republicans underperformed expectations, but that’s cold comfort. The Democrats’ moral victory notwithstanding, the GOP will nevertheless control America’s purse strings.
What about the Senate? The amount of territory Republicans are defending after a surprisingly strong showing in 2016 ensured long ago that retaking the chamber in 2022 would be a struggle. The controversial candidates Republican primary voters preferred in states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, among others, haven’t made the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s job any easier.But for all the flaws the GOP’s nominees bring to the race, both contests remain competitive.