In talks with Sergei Lavrov this week, Secretary Blinken certainly has diplomatic options. The question is, will he pursue the right ones?
this week. If by then, Russia has in fact invaded Ukraine, then negotiations between the West and Russia will have to continue on a new basis—and whether this will be more advantageous to the West or Russia only time will tell.on Ukrainian membership of NATO for a period of 20 years, allowing time for negotiations on a new security architecture for Europe as a whole, including Russia.
So in the event of Russian occupation of more Ukrainian territory, Russia will use this to put pressure on the West to make concessions, and the West will use economic sanctions to put pressure on Russia to make concessions. On both sides, however, the goal will be to reach an eventual political agreement.
On the other hand, Moscow has made it clear that it is not prepared to accept a negotiating process that drags on endlessly without result—as for example has been the case with the Donbas peace process over the past seven years, and with the fake NATO-Russia"dialogue." A Russian invasion remains a real possibility unless a compromise with Russia can be found.
The goal for Blinken and the U.S. negotiating team in the meeting with Lavrov must be to avert war by bringing about a withdrawal of the Russian forces deployed close to Ukraine's borders since the start of last December, backed by a public statement by the Russian government that its threat of a"military-technical" response to Western actions has been withdrawn. The proposals from the U.S.
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