Opinion: U.S.-Iran tensions are at a dangerous level, but hope remains neither side wants a war

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Opinion: U.S.-Iran tensions are at a dangerous level, but hope remains neither side wants a war
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U.S.-Iran tensions are at a dangerous level, but hope remains neither side wants a war GlobeDebate

The events in Iraq this past week initially looked very much like the familiar pattern we have grown accustomed to over the course of the past year: attacks, threats and counter-threats exchanged between Iran and the U.S., followed by a period of calm once both sides had sufficiently flexed their muscles.

The Quds Force is the sharp end of Iran’s regional ambitions and priorities and General Soleimani was its face. For many , Soleimani was a terrorist thug, but in hard-line circles in Iran and among Iran’s regional allies and proxy forces, Soleimani was a hero. His death at U.S. hands will not sit easily in Tehran. Pressure for a response will be high and likely irresistible. There will be no shortage of allies in Iraq and elsewhere willing to lend a hand.

The U.S. action will be widely applauded across much of the region. The Arab Gulf states, in particular, will welcome Washington’s new willingness to confront Iran so directly. It is an approach they have long been seeking. Soleimani and the IRGC-QF were reviled in the Gulf , and his death will be celebrated, even if it also raises the risk of increased regional instability.

What the Iranian response will look like is unclear, but renewed threats to Iran’s vulnerable Gulf neighbours and shipping are likely. Ultimately, where this crisis lands may rest on whether Iran again target U.S. assets as directly as they did in Iraq. The Trump administration has signalled the risk of that option. The U.S. could decide to respond inside Iran next time, and that would take tensions to a whole other new level.

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