Opinion: Whether or not this new era of new missile defenses materializes fundamentally depends upon the success or failure of one thing: a new layer of space-based sensors
At the January release of his administration’s new missile defense policy review, President Donald Trump announced the beginning of a “new era” for missile defense. To be sure, a new period of missile threats has already arrived, consisting of a spectrum of advanced ballistic and cruise missiles as well as hypersonic glide vehicles. A variety of efforts are underway to counter these threats, including a next-generation interceptor for the defense of the American homeland.
But it all starts with the sensors. No interceptor is better than the eyes that tell it where to go and what to kill. And there is no better vantage point than space from which to detect and track missiles in flight. Although the Pentagon has recently contracted billions to build offensive hypersonic missiles, defense of them has been neglected. Some press accounts breathlessly depict hypersonic missiles as unstoppable. They are not.
The new paradigm is for large numbers of smaller and cheaper satellites in low-earth orbit—a model recently demonstrated by the Blackjack testbed. The idea is that more eyes boosts resilience, and lower orbits are closer to hypersonic gliders. This vision also leverages commercial trends, including the reduced cost of space launch. The Pentagon’s methods of cost-calculation should be updated accordingly. Trades can also be made within the missile defense portfolio.
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