To end the war in Ukraine, Putin needs a political win
, and despite a steady supply of Western weaponry to Kyiv, the invader had superior airpower and used it. Moscow counted on swiftly subduing the Ukrainian capital and installing a puppet regime that would easily agree to its terms.
But now, a year on, the grim reality is that a Ukrainian victory is still far from just around the corner. Mr. Putin has dug in for the long-haul, reorienting his country’s economy to a wartime footing, mobilizing 300,000 reservists and doubling down with a new offensive. His technocrats have worked miracles to ensure the economy lasts.
Knowing how unpopular a war would be, Mr. Putin had to resort to repressions – including nearly 20,000 people arrested for criticizing the war – to keep people in line. And the limited mobilization he conducted in September sparked such a backlash that he barely averted a political crisis. Even his nationalist hawks and the mercenaries he relies on to support his war are turning against him – and
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