If sensible public policies are to be implemented to address climate issues, Canadians need realistic and credible information. Read on.
In the first scenario examined, emissions reductions are achieved on the basis of “announced policy,” that is, the federal government’s 2022, which even Ottawa acknowledges will not fully attain net zero without additional measures. In the second, “accelerated scenario,” emissions reductions are achieved on the basis of the ERP, plus an economy-wide cap on net-zero emissions in 2050.
In summary, the three cases studied were: option one, the policy status quo; option two, the status quo plus a 2050 economy-wide net-zero cap; and option three, the status quo, plus the 2050 net-zero cap plus a phase-out of oil and gas starting in 2035.
And that’s true even though their estimate of the incremental cost of phasing out oil and gas production is almost certainly too low. According to aby the Ivey Business School, in 2019 Canada’s oil and gas industry alone accounted for almost $150 billion in GDP, or 7.5 per cent of Canada’s total. Wiping it out all but entirely should produce a loss at least in that range, as well as further costs all across the Canadian economy.
Another shortcoming of the report is that it focused on the reduction in GDP in 2050 and did not report the accumulated reduction in Canadian incomes from today through 2050. Nor did it include any analysis of the costs of the technologies that would be required for Canada to reach the proposed net-zero target.
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