From WSJopinion: Division and lack of will in the U.S. and Europe will factor into Vladimir Putin’s decision whether to invade Ukraine
The fault lies mainly withand his desire to restore Greater Russia. But this ambition has been known at least since his annexation of Crimea in 2014, so why has he moved again now? And why have Washington and Berlin failed to convince him that the costs of another invasion will exceed the benefits?
Mr. Biden didn’t help deterrence at his press conference Wednesday by suggesting that a “minor incursion” by Russia might not trigger a united response from the West. “It's one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do,” Mr. Biden said. Pressed on the point, he didn’t provide any clarity on what would be “minor,” and Mr. Putin may think he now has leave to take at least some territory.
The Biden Administration is now promising “massive consequences” if Russia invades again, but why should Mr. Putin believe it? The U.S. has ruled out any direct U.S. military defense of Ukraine, so Mr. Putin knows he needn’t worry about that. But the U.S. has also failed to raise the costs of a Russian invasion by adequately arming Kyiv.
Germany also has refused to send weapons to Kyiv, with the foreign minister on Monday citing historical reasons. This is from a country that exported
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