Opinion: How is Trump’s Iran policy supposed to work?
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivers a speech in Santiago, Chile, on April 12. By Jennifer Rubin Jennifer Rubin Opinion writer covering politics and policy, foreign and domestic Email Bio Follow Opinion writer April 26 at 9:00 AM The Trump administration’s post-JCPOA strategy is to put Iran’s economy in a stranglehold, by among other things, ending waivers for allies that purchase Iranian oil. There are a few serious problems with this strategy.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are unlikely to sustain higher production levels for very long, out of concern for stability in oil markets. Iran’s “heavy oil,” which many countries need for refined oil products, cannot be replaced by Saudi light crude. Turkey, China, India and possibly some European allies will find ways to work around U.S. sanctions for both economic and geopolitical reasons. And Iran can reduce oil supplies leaving the Persian Gulf.
However, it is far from clear Iran will be willing to reenter talks — or that the rest of the administration would even welcome such an overture. Indeed, the administration sometimes sounds as though it expects the Iran problem to be resolved through regime change, without a rational plan to accomplish that.
The Iranian regime remains legitimate in the eyes of millions of Iranians, has been in place for four decades, retains tremendous repressive power, enjoys the support of Russia and China and faces no organized opposition on the ground. It is fantastical thinking to believe that Washington could get rid of the regime. If internal changes come, they will be driven primarily by Iranians themselves. In fact, Trump is likely to leave before the mullahs do.
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