It's time for preventive action, four health experts write.
The warnings are increasing. Infectious disease researchers, virologists, veterinarians, and occupational health specialists around the world are sounding alarms.
Worse, the mutations found in the virus that infected the teenager show it’s adapting to humans and is more likely to affect the lungs - possibly explaining why the teen became so sick. Based on initial symptoms alone, H5N1 can’t be distinguished from more familiar influenza strains, COVID-19 or the common cold. In the case of the infected BC teen, even asking about their poultry farm exposure would not have raised any alarms at their first ER visit. BC got lucky, and no H5N1 transmission occurred. The question is what happens next time?
We cannot afford to get this wrong yet again. Beyond the harm done to individuals, every new human infection produces billions of copies of the virus. With a high mutation rate, this allows nature’s evolutionary engine to roll the dice over and over — each one giving the virus another chance to hit the pandemic jackpot.The good news is that with a precautionary approach, it not only can be done, but it has been done.
Justice Campbell’s inquiry into the mismanagement of SARS-CoV-1 laid out the information we needed to do better when SARS-CoV-2 came along. He explicitly specified that “...the precautionary principle that reasonable action to reduce risk, like the use of a fitted N95 respirator, need not await scientific certainty.”
In late 2022, almost two years into the pandemic, the retiring Chief Scientist of the World Health Organization publicly regretted the WHO's failure to accept and act on airborne transmission early on as their biggest mistake that has cost an enormous number of lives. The path forward We do not know how rapidly H5N1 will evolve and spread — but there is a realistic possibility an H5N1 pandemic could be as bad as the COVID pandemic, or even worse. We might get lucky — but to rely on that happening is a gamble, not a strategy.
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