Ontario's Housing Crisis: Population Growth Outpaces Construction

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Ontario's Housing Crisis: Population Growth Outpaces Construction
Housing CrisisOntarioPopulation Growth
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Ontario is facing a severe housing shortage as population growth outstrips new home construction. The Missing Middle Initiative (MMI) reports that Ontario built only 40% of the homes needed to keep pace with population growth, highlighting the urgency of addressing this issue.

Ontario faces a significant housing shortage as its population growth outpaces new home construction. A recent report by the Missing Middle Initiative (MMI) revealed that Ontario 's population increased by approximately 500,000 between June 1, 2023, and June 1, 2024, while only 82,000 new homes were built during the same period. The MMI estimates that Ontario needed around 200,000 new homes to keep up with population growth , meaning the province built only about 40% of its requirement.

This persistent gap between population growth and housing supply is a primary driver of the ongoing housing crisis in Ontario. The MMI's analysis is based on their RoCA (Rest-of-Canada) Benchmark, which calculates the number of new housing units needed based on population growth and age-adjusted household formation rates. While this benchmark is not perfect, it provides a data-driven assessment of the housing shortfall. According to Statistics Canada, Canada's population grew by 1.2 million people between July 1, 2023, and July 1, 2024. Applying the RoCA formula, Canada would have needed to add over 500,000 homes, with 200,000 of those in Ontario. The report highlights that Ontario's homebuilding efforts have been consistently lagging behind other provinces for several years, ranking in the bottom half in terms of new homes built per capita. While the province has set an ambitious target of 1.5 million new homes by 2031, current data suggests that this goal may be challenging to achieve. However, there are some signs of progress. Recent initiatives by cities like Vaughan and Toronto aim to address the housing crisis by reducing development charges and streamlining the approval process for new housing developments. These efforts, along with ongoing research and policy discussions, may help bridge the gap between population growth and housing supply in the long term

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Housing Crisis Ontario Population Growth Homebuilding Missing Middle Initiative Roca Benchmark Development Charges

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