As the Ontario election campaign kicks off, the race is on between the provincial NDP and Liberals to define themselves as the best alternative to Doug Ford's PCs. Both parties are emphasizing their differences and engaging in direct attacks, aiming to secure the support of progressive voters.
As Ontario's election campaign gets underway, political analysts predict a fierce battle between the provincial New Democrats and Liberals to establish themselves as the primary challenger to Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford . Both NDP Leader Marit Stiles and Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie have initiated their campaigns by highlighting distinctions between their parties, both in terms of style and policy, and engaging in verbal sparring.
This competition, often referred to as the 'progressive primary,' signifies the struggle between Ontario's centre-left parties to emerge as a formidable alternative to the PCs.During her campaign launch, Stiles drew a comparison between the Liberals and a car in need of repair, directly appealing to their traditional voters. She asserted, 'Today's Liberal leader would be right at home as a cabinet minister in Doug Ford's government. Bonnie Crombie doesn't want to get rid of Doug Ford. Bonnie Crombie wants to be Doug Ford.' Crombie responded the following day, focusing on policy differences without directly mentioning Stiles or the NDP. She stated, 'Well, that leader does not have a very serious plan. We will have the most robust platform.'The 2022 election saw neither party secure a clear lead, with both receiving just over 23 percent of the vote share. However, the concentration of these votes across the province resulted in the NDP winning 31 seats and forming the Official Opposition, while the Liberals secured eight seats, falling short of the 12 required for official party status. Political experts emphasize that the current campaign is shaping up to be a tight contest, with one party needing to attract support from the other to effectively challenge Ford's PCs. Trent University political studies professor Cristine de Clercy points out, 'I think all elections test bases of support and the reality is, that particularly in Ontario, the Liberals and the New Democrats share a lot of the same sorts of supporters.'NDP strategist Mélanie Richer, who was involved in the Ontario campaign in 2022, highlights the importance of removing the Liberals as a viable option early in the campaign. She stresses, 'If you haven't done that, the story throughout the election, like we saw in 2022 is, will it be the NDP? Will it be the Liberals? And then Doug Ford's kind of hanging out by himself.' Political strategist David Herle, who served as co-chair of the 2014 and 2018 Ontario Liberal campaigns, observes that neither party successfully presented themselves as a credible challenger to Ford in the previous election, resulting in a split anti-PC vote. He notes the challenges of conveying a nuanced message that appeals to NDP voters, stating, 'Liberal voters do not like it when the Liberal Party attacks the NDP because the NDP are seen by Liberal voters as people that probably shouldn't govern, but are well intentioned. When the Liberal campaign goes hard at them, they actually repel Liberal voters.'
Ontario Election Progressive Conservatives New Democratic Party Liberal Party Doug Ford Marit Stiles Bonnie Crombie Progressive Primary
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