Oil prices remained relatively stable despite conflicting forces influencing the market. While strong winter fuel demand and increasing global consumption are pushing prices upwards, concerns about oversupply and a strengthening US dollar are putting downward pressure. Analysts predict continued volatility in the coming months as investors await clarity on US economic policies under the Trump administration and potential fiscal stimulus measures.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as investors weighed firm winter fuel demand expectations against large U.S. fuel inventories and macroeconomic concerns. Brent crude futures were down 3 cents at $76.13 a barrel by 1003 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dipped 10 cents to $73.22. Both benchmarks fell more than 1 per cent on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and a bigger than expected rise in U.S. fuel stockpiles pressured prices.
The oil market is still grappling with opposite forces – seasonal demand to support the bulls and macro data that supports a stronger U.S. dollar in the medium term … that can put a ceiling to prevent the bulls from advancing further,” said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong. JPMorgan analysts expect oil demand for January to expand by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) year on year to 101.4 million bpd, primarily driven by increased use of heating fuels in the Northern Hemisphere. “Global oil demand is expected to remain strong throughout January, fuelled by colder than normal winter conditions that are boosting heating fuel consumption, as well as an earlier onset of travel activities in China for the Lunar New Year holidays,” the analysts said. The market structure in Brent futures is also indicating that traders are becoming more concerned about supply tightening at the same time demand is increasing. The premium of the front-month Brent contract over the six-month contract reached its widest since August on Wednesday. A widening of this backwardation, when futures for prompt delivery are higher than for later delivery, typically indicates that supply is declining or demand is increasing. Nevertheless, official Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed rising gasoline and distillates stockpiles in the United States last week. The dollar strengthened further on Thursday, underpinned by rising Treasury yields ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s entrance into the White House on Jan. 20. Looking ahead, WTI crude oil is expected to oscillate within a range of $67.55 to $77.95 into February as the market awaits more clarity on Trump’s administration policies and fresh fiscal stimulus measures out of China, OANDA’s Wong said. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil supply to China is set to decline in February from the previous month, trade sources said on Thursday, after the kingdom raised its official selling prices to Asia for the first time in three months
OIL PRICES DEMAND SUPPLY US DOLLAR ENERGY MARKET
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