Oil price forecast for 2023 all over the map CanadiansInvest
Projecting energy prices into the New Year is an ominous task. Professionally, it could be hazardous. Josh Rubin, in his year-end piece in The Toronto Star, rightly says it ‘can be a bit like aiming at a dartboard.’
Yet, pundits are baffled. It is not the fundamentals, the demand-supply equation, that is controlling the energy markets today. It is the role of geopolitics. The war in Ukraine, the western price cap on Russian output and its resultant squeeze on crude supplies from Moscow will continue to hang their shadow on markets this year.Ed Morse, Citi’s global head of Commodities Research, projects the average Brent at US$80 and WTI at US$75 a barrel this year.
Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors and portfolio manager of the InfraCap Equity Income ETF, says he expectsoil to trade in the US$80 to US$100 range while the Ukrainian war continues,” adding that “China oil demand likely to recover as it emerges from zero-COVID lockdown policy.” BofA is of the view that Brent prices, currently trading at US$77.93, will average US$100 per barrel in 2023 thanks to Chinese oil demand recovery on a post-COVID reopening coupled with a drop in Russian supplies of about one million barrels per day . According to the investment bank, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies in the OPEC+ are likely to fully implement a two million bpd output cut in a bid to boost oil prices.
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