Zakiya is a staff writer with STOREYS. She has reported on real estate for Apartment Therapy, Curbed, and Post City Magazines. She also writes a quarterly series for a Canadian design publication.
“Financial markets had been thinking there was a 50/50 chance of a June cut before today's data, but that probability rose to around 65% following the benign March CPI data release.”after coming in at 2.8% in February. Even so, economists seem to be in agreement that this is not necessarily bad news on the interest rate cut front.
He highlighted that while CPI “ticked up” on a year-over-year basis, CPI-median fell slightly to 3.1% while CPI-trim slipped to 2.8%. Preston further cautioned that “Canadian inflation remains largely a shelter story,” in that rent and mortgage interest costs continue to be elevated, coming in at 8.5% year over year and 25.4% year over year in March. Without those costs, CPI would have come in at just 1.5% last month.at a recent press conference, shelter costs on their own are not cause for concern when it comes to rate cuts and their timing.
Chief among those is "the potential for a much larger rise in oil prices amid an escalation of tensions in the Middle East," Cross said. “Gasoline prices were one of the strongest contributors to headline CPI in March, and oil prices have continued to rise in early April. The good news for the Bank is that, thanks to more favourable base effects from here, there is scope for headline inflation to fall in the coming months despite the rise in gasoline prices so far.
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