Negotiators have never been closer to a breakthrough—but the dangers of a breakdown are also apparent
IN A WORLD of increasing geopolitical rivalry—over Ukraine, Taiwan and more—the big powers have at least managed to co-operate in the diplomatic effort to contain Iran’s nuclear programme. After eight rounds of negotiations in Vienna, might they succeed in reviving the nuclear deal agreed on by Barack Obama in 2015 and abandoned by Donald Trump three years later?
In response, Iran progressively accelerated its enrichment of uranium—the fissile material required for both nuclear reactors and bombs. It has spun some uranium to 60% enrichment, a hair’s breadth away from bomb-grade stuff. It has also converted enriched uranium hexafluoride gas into uranium metal—for which the most likely use is in bombs—and hampered inspections by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency .
For the Iranians, too, the JCPOA is losing value. Any lifting of American sanctions is liable to be temporary, given thatmay well be out of office in 2025. Mr Trump might be back in the White House; in any case, any Republican president will be under strong pressure to abandon the deal. American negotiators have rejected Iranian demands for a “guarantee” that sanctions will not be re-imposed.
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