November inflation will be lower, thanks to falling gas prices and unsnarling supply chains, economists predict

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November inflation will be lower, thanks to falling gas prices and unsnarling supply chains, economists predict
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On Wednesday, Statistics Canada will release the Consumer Price Index for November, and economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect it to come in at 6.5%.

Falling gas prices likely pushed Canada’s annual rate of inflation lower in November, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes are working, economists say.

“The slowdown in inflation since June has nothing to do with the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes. It’s almost all because of gasoline,” said Stanford, who predicts the annual rate of inflation may have fallen below six per cent in November. The theory is that by making it more expensive for Canadian consumers and businesses to borrow money, the Bank will cut demand and slow the economy down, pushing prices lower. That’s not, Stanford says, what’s happening, even in sectors of the economy where interest rates have the most direct impact.

Now, Antunes suggests, it’s more likely because the supply chain chaos unleashed by the global COVID-19 pandemic is now finally getting unsnarled, and products are making it from factories to warehouses and eventually store shelves. “Food price inflation appears to have remained stubborn, and rising rates will continue to impact the mortgage interest payment part of the inflation basket,” said Grantham.

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