The future for office buildings is up in the air. Here's how long Morgan Stanley sees non-residential construction declining.
report, which looked at over 100 construction verticals, sees a multi-year downturn in the non-residential construction, for both public and private projects.
Morgan Stanley suggests that spending will fall around 20% over the next three years. More specifically, it predicted a 10% fall in 2020, a 7% fall in 2021, and then a 2% decline in 2022. The report anticipates that from 2020 to 2022, public and private construction will collectively see a roughly $400 billion shortfall compared to pre-coronavirus predictions, consisting of a roughly $285 billion shortfall in the private space and a roughly $105 billion public shortfall.
The report forecasts that private non-residential construction will be down 15% year-over-year in 2020, 9% in 2021, and 2% in 2022. As for public non-residential construction, the report predicts a 1% year-over-year decline in 2020, 4% in 2021, and 2% in 2022. While the study foresees an infrastructure stimulus easing some of the impact, it says the proposals of $2 trillion over 10 years, from President Trump, and $760 billion over seven years, from the Democrats, would "largely fill the hole" but "would not be enough to drive significant upside." Morgan Stanley called for an infrastructure stimulus of $500 billion over three years.
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