The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting an 'above-normal' 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, releasing its highest ever pre-season annual…
is predicting an"above-normal" 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, releasing its highest ever pre-season annual forecast on Thursday.
In the release, NOAA asserted the 2024 season as"extraordinary" per Rick Spinrad, Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere. Viewed as the two pillars of tropical seasonal outlooks, NOAA and Colorado State have captured the pre-season limelight this year. But they’re not the only forecasts pointing at an above-average season.
Again, one of the pillars for this season’s above-average number of storms will come from the transition away from El Niño, which is already occurring, to La Niña. This ocean-atmosphere phenomenon is tucked away in the equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean and serves as a driving force for Atlantic basin activity.
This year, La Niña is forecast to settle in and coincide with the peak of hurricane season. This is the alignment we don’t want, but it looks inevitable. La Niña, which features cooler water and the lack of rising air in the Pacific, lends itself to lighter winds in the Atlantic basin. These seasons feature less wind shear are likely to produce more storms in a less-hostile wind environment.
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