Just last year, President Bashar al-Assad seemed on the brink of crowning military victories by easing his diplomatic isolation and recovering more of Syria without a bullet being fired.
FILE PHOTO: A woman walks past a poster depicting Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria March 5, 2020. REUTERS/Yamam Al Shaar/File Photo
The economy, already ravaged by a decade of war, is in deep trouble, hit not only by sanctions but also by the fallout of a financial meltdown in neighbouring Lebanon that has choked off dollars. “The cascading effect of the sanctions could undermine Assad’s ability to re-extend or maintain control over much of the country. I don’t think it will overthrow him in the near-term, but it will restrict his ability to maintain control,” said David Lesch, a Syria expert and Middle East History professor at Trinity University in Texas.The war has killed hundreds of thousands of people and forced more than 11 million from their homes, around half the pre-war population.
Syria could depend on its friends and allies, he said: “This needs a bit of patience. It’s been a week since Caesar was passed. No one has a magic wand to say Russia has to give this or Iran that.” Though President Donald Trump last year ordered U.S. forces to withdraw, they remain in the east, denying Assad control of oil fields and farmland and providing a security umbrella for a Kurdish-led autonomous zone. Turkish forces in the northwest also obstruct Assad’s recovery of the last rebel stronghold.
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