The chances that Brexit will be cancelled are now greater than the chances Brita...
LONDON - The chances that Brexit will be cancelled are now greater than the chances Britain will leave the European Union without a deal, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who again pushed back their expectations for when the Bank of England will raise interest rates.
In the latest monthly Reuters survey, taken April 12-17, the median probability Britain and the EU will part ways in a disorderly fashion - where no deal is agreed - held steady at the 15 percent given in March, the lowest since Reuters began asking in July 2017.“Apart from the fact that no-deal Brexit is now less likely, the path ahead is as unclear as ever. A deal still seems more likely than not,” BNP Paribas economists said. “But we are sceptical that this will happen any time soon.
But the third and fourth spots flipped from last month, so leaving without an agreement and trading under World Trade Organization rules fell to least likely. Brexit’s being cancelled reclaimed third place, a ranking it has only held once before. Medians suggest the first rate increase of 25 basis points will come early next year, one calendar quarter later than was forecast a month ago. Bank Rate will then stay at 1.00 percent throughout 2020, the poll predicted.
The economy is predicted to grow a modest 0.2 to 0.4 percent per quarter through to the end of next year, similar to forecasts for the euro zone. [ECILT/EU]
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