Nigeriens are preparing for a possible invasion by countries in the region, three weeks after mutinous soldiers ousted the nation's democratically elected president.
Residents in the capital, Niamey, are calling for the mass recruitment of volunteers to assist the army in the face of a growing threat by the West African regional bloc, ECOWAS, which says it will use military force if the junta doesn't reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. ECOWAS has activated a "standby force" to restore order in Niger after the junta ignored a deadline to release and reinstate Bazoum.
ECOWAS defence chiefs are expected to meet this week for the first time since the bloc announced the deployment of the "standby" force. It's unclear when or if the force will invade, but it would probably include several thousand troops and would have devastating consequences, conflict experts say. Since the coup, France and the U.S. have suspended military operations and jihadi attacks are increasing. At least 17 soldiers were killed and nearly two dozen wounded in an ambush by extremists in the Tillaberi region, said the Ministry of Defence on state television on Tuesday. The attack occurred Tuesday afternoon when a military detachment was travelling between Boni and Torodi villages. The wounded were evacuated to Niamey.
Analysts say the longer the coup drags on, the less likely an intervention will occur as the junta cements its grip on power, likely forcing the international community to accept the status quo. "The U.S. is in a difficult situation with no good choices," said Michael Shurkin, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and director of global programs at 14 North Strategies, an Africa-focused risk advisory. "It either sticks to a principled position and pushes for democracy while alienating the junta and risk pushing it into Russia's arms, or we give up on principle and work with the junta in the hope of salvaging a productive working relationship.
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