When Niger's coup leader Abdourahmane Tiani announced the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum on television last week, he cited persistent insecurity as justification.
But an analysis of data on attacks and casualties in the country, where an Islamist insurgency has raged, shows that security was actually improving thanks to tactics used by Bazoum's government and help from French and U.S. forces.Meanwhile, coups can stoke insecurity.
In the first six months of 2023, violent incidents in Niger decreased by nearly 40% compared to the previous six months, according to the ACLED data, which is based on reports from sources including news organisations, human rights groups and local authorities. They included fighting between the army and militants, explosions and riots. But most incidents involve attacks on civilians, which dropped by half during that period.
In Burkina Faso, where there were two coups last year, deaths rose 80% to more than 4,000 in 2022. They have already surpassed 5,000 this year. "If the situation is not reversed, it's very likely that the spread of terrorism in the region can increase," Simao said.marched in the capital Niamey on Thursday in support of the junta as regional defence chiefs discussed possible intervention to restore democracy.Violence crept into southwest Niger in 2018 as Islamist militants expanded from Mali, where they had been active since 2012.
Government emissaries were sent to meet Islamist fighters and ethnic Fulani communities from which militants were recruiting. Local media reported prisoner releases in which insurgents were set free.
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