Quarterbacks are more valuable than ever, which has changed their status in the NFL draft. Here's what history can tell us about the 2024 class.
, with episodes released once a week. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland. Follow him on Twitter here:, which has happened only twice in the past 25 years. Yates also has a fourth QB landing with the No. 5 pick, which would be uncharted territory: There has never been a draft with four quarterbacks taken in the top five..
If we compare that number to what the average top-10 player at each position has landed on multiyear veteran deals, we get a sense of what the market looks like for each position. We can use that information to estimate how confident the Patriots would have to be about whomever they take at No. 3 to justify making that pick.
This class is fresh in everyone's memory, given that three of the five quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 have been traded before the start of their fourth seasons in the league. Four of these five will have their fifth-year option declined without much of a second thought, which is a clear indicator they failed to pan out for their respective teams.
I'm a conservative grader, so I'm not yet prepared to put any of these first-rounders into the Hall of Fame. It would hardly be a surprise if at least one ended up in Canton, though, and they're all successes for their teams. Injuries are the only reason Tagovailoa hasn't earned ain a two-part look on how and why it's so difficult to judge quarterbacks. The performances from this class have only reinforced how little we know about passers as they enter the league.
Three of the five signal-callers flamed out almost entirely and failed to play beyond their rookie deals, as Couch, Smith and McNown were massive disappointments. McNabb had a long career with the Eagles, but after finishing second in the MVP balloting in his sophomore campaign, his only other great season was in 2004. Culpepper was drafted to break the cycle of veteran quarterbacks in Minnesota, and he put together brilliant seasons in 2000 and 2004.
And yet, I just showed you the data. It's not going to be much different at other positions than it is at quarterback. Nearly half of the quarterbacks who get drafted in Round 1 turn out to be bitter disappointments. For all the advancements we've made in analytics, access to film, historical knowledge and context, that hasn't changed.
Goff probably doesn't have the sort of ceiling Bears fans are hoping for from Williams, but it also seems hard to argue that the Bears wouldn't be thrilled with Goff's level of success. He has made three Pro Bowls, won five playoff games, went to the Super Bowl with the Rams and helped rebuild the Lions into legitimate contenders, all before turning 30.
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