With Washington riveted to the Mueller report, a comprehensive economic assessment of the new North American free trade deal quietly emerged Thursday, predicting less-than-stellar economic gains for the United States.
Moreover, the much anticipated report of the U.S. International Trade Commission undercut the Trump administration's rationale for forcing a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, said one leading Canadian trade lawyer.
The commission predicted modest economic growth in the U.S. as a result of the agreement -- a 0.35 per cent increase in gross domestic product and 176,000 new jobs, an increase of just 0.12 per cent. Todgham Cherniak said the identical figures debunk the American raison d'etre for renegotiating NAFTA -- that the U.S. was suffering under an unfair trade deficit that needed correcting.That figure was not lost on Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland, who railed repeatedly in the long NAFTA talks against the U.S. argument that it was facing a trade deficit.
The complicated content formula for what constitutes a North American-made auto -- known as rules of origin -- and updated labour provisions aimed at Mexico were key issues in the contentious NAFTA renegotiation. Dan Ujczo, a trade lawyer and Canada-U.S. specialist in Columbus, Ohio, said the analysis confirms that the U.S. is never going to get a better deal with Canada and Mexico than the current agreement. But he suggested it's all probably moot given the wider political turmoil unleashed by the Mueller report, which examines whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to meddle in the 2016 presidential election.
The U.S. Trade Representative said Thursday the new, yet-to-be-ratified deal will bring auto jobs back to the U.S. from Mexico. In a new nine-page "white paper," it said the new continental trade deal will generate $57 billion in new auto manufacturing investments and create 76,000 new jobs in the American automotive sector in the next five years.
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