Energy-transition plans leave out African data, models and expertise, says Rose M. Mutiso, research director at the Energy for Growth Hub in London
Another problem with models is relevance. Many models focus on decarbonization as the main goal and assume that there will be minimal increases in Africa’s future energy consumption. African countries have tiny baseline emissions and are developing their energy infrastructure to power economic growth, so this is not the case there — and such models are not equitable.
Most funding and expertise in modelling energy systems is at non-African institutions, so modellers don’t always ask the relevant questions. African modellers are better placed to study and integrate the region’s unique energy-sector characteristics — for example, accounting for privately owned diesel generators, which are widely used owing to unreliable power grids but difficult to track systematically.
First, expand access to essential Africa-specific data. Funders and researchers should push for open access to African data behind paywalls, as well as data underlying major decarbonization reports. Efforts targeted at the International Energy Agency are under way, and more are needed. Scientists should also develop modelling methodologies that are better suited to constrained data, and ways to fill data gaps using machine learning, artificial intelligence and satellite imagery.
Third, support more African institutions and analysts doing this work. We need more collaborations, ranging from research partnerships to scholar exchanges and joint initiatives across institutions and regions. These partnerships must be of equals. Researchers should push African governments and development partners to invest in building local expertise, for instance through data-science education programmes and centres of excellence focused on mapping Africa’s energy transition.
Without a data-driven African agenda on the energy transition, net-zero pledges made at COP27 will be meaningless. Most importantly, a prosperous future for more than one billion Africans will be further sidelined — which is not a problem just for Africa. The continent will be home to one-quarter of the world’s population by 2050 and is a source of crucial resources for the global energy transition.
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