Given the size and diversity of the field, and the flood of coverage, this race has not shown much relative movement
Political reporters, whose powers of analysis and prediction have been not so reliable in the Trump era, have learned to lean on what editors call the “to be sure” paragraph. These are like the fine print in a legal contract:One of the most familiar to-be-sure paragraphs involves the calendar: “To be sure, it’s still early, and a lot could happen by Election Day.”Well, to hell with that: Modern readers can easily write their own to-be-sure lines.
poster="http://v.politico.com/images/1155968404/201906/3264/1155968404_6052188731001_6051790596001-vs.jpg?pubId=1155968404". Biden has remained impressively steady. Bernie Sanders, who started out in second place, comes into the debates at clear risk of losing relative ground in the field. Beto O’Rourke and Kamala Harris have ridden seemingly ephemeral waves of curiosity and excitement and returned basically where they started: needing some moment to show they are the real deal.
“It is early but then it’s not early,” said Adrienne Elrod, who served as Hillary Clinton’s director of strategic communications and surrogates and is now president of Elrod Strategies. “If you’re John Delaney, Michael Bennet, Eric Swalwell, we’re in make-or-break territory over the next four weeks.”
This reality creates a strategic quandry. In interviews with more than a half-dozen campaigns who have yet to qualify for the third and fourth debates, the candidates are divided on what to do the next five weeks. Some want to use the debates to introduce themselves to a nation that doesn’t really know them. Others are looking to contrast their worldview with another candidate to create some viral content even if that means drawing attention to a rival.
Warren’s and Buttigieg’s candidacies are different in innumerable details but similar in one essential: Both present similar contrasts with Trump — learned and even academic in style, crisp in articulating liberal policies — and also would signal that Democrats want more than to simply time-travel to 2008 and have a second version of the Obama presidency. Warren’s willingness to challenge business goes far beyond what was comfortable for Obama even during the financial crisis of a decade ago.
Some candidates have already signaled their approach. In recent weeks, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper gave a speech against socialism following Sanders’ speech on the same topic. Former Rep. John Delaney told the liberal crowd at the California state party convention that Medicare for All is “not good policy, nor is it good politics.” Others, like Rep.
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