Since the end of April European and Japanese stock markets have outperformed even a jubilant Wall Street
the theory of cognitive dissonance it is stressful to dwell on contradictions. Pity, then, anyone trying to reconcile the miserable mood of many economic forecasters with booming stockmarkets and the increasingly bullish mood in many boardrooms. This week the, a club of mostly rich countries, predicted “dire and long-lasting consequences” in the rich world from the recessions caused by the covid-19 pandemic.
Start with the good news. Most analysts had thought that America’s unemployment rate would rise from 14.7% to around 20% in May. Instead it fell to 13.3% as millions of Americans were recalled to work . Real-time data on credit-card spending, e-commerce and consumer mobility suggest that American consumer spending reached a trough in April and has now recovered to around 90% of its pre-pandemic level.
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