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It's finally the week of the U.S. consumer price lottery, and never has a second decimal been so important. The median forecast for core CPI is 0.3%, which alone would be a real relief after three months of 0.4's. But will it be nearer a dovish 0.26%, or a hawkish 0.34%?The former, or even lower, would see the market bring a July rate cut back into play from its current pricing of 25%.
There are plenty of Fed speakers on the docket this week to offer their reaction, though unfortunately Chair Powell appears on Tuesday ahead of the data. Seems he's in Amsterdam for an event, the city making an exception for this particular tourist.
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