The final quarter of the year kicks off on Monday and the market mood could not be darker.
Investors are betting that soaring U.S. interest rates, bond yields and the dollar will tighten financial conditions enough to tip the U.S. and global economies into recession. A few domestic crises and central bank interventions - think Britain and Japan - have only darkened the global gloom.By some measures - the S&P 500 and the ICE BofA Treasury Index's respective year-to-date falls of 25% and 13% - this is shaping up to be the worst year since the 1930s.
On Friday, JP Morgan's Marko Kolanovic - one of the most vocal equity bulls - appeared to throw in the towel, saying he now fears a central bank policy error. Peak bearishness? Another glimmer of temporary hope is on the economic front. While everyone is slashing their 2023 outlooks, the current data flow is actually not as bad as feared - Citi's G10 economic surprises index is positive and its highest since May.But the bigger picture is challenging, and there is no shortage of tests for investors this week, including: U.S. earnings season gets underway, global PMIs, U.S.
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