Odds of a cut have shot up to 93% over the last few days
Traders in money markets over the past few days have been reassessing the odds that another Bank of Canada rate cut looms this September - and have become increasingly convinced more monetary easing is coming.
Those probabilities have been aggressively climbing in the days since, reaching a peak today. It’s been accompanied by a steadily weakening Canadian dollar against the greenback and falling bond yields. Canada’s two-year bond yield, which is sensitive to central bank policy sentiment, today is at a two-year low of 3.53 per cent. Canada’s five-year yield, which heavily influences the fixed mortgage rate market, is at its lowest since December.
“It could well reflect the fact that commodity prices have entered a severe correction and following the tame PCE deflator numbers out of the U.S.,” he said in an email to the Globe and Mail.
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