The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, predicts that the partial mobilization will not shift the tide of the war in Moscow's favor.
Institute for the Study of War and AEI's Critical Threats Project
It's also unclear how well-prepared these new troops will be. The ISW said:"Russian reserves are poorly trained to begin with and receive no refresher training once their conscription period is completed. "Russian mandatory military service is only one year, which gives conscripts little time to learn how to be soldiers, to begin with. The absence of refresher training after that initial period accelerates the degradation of learned soldier skills over time.
"Shoigu referred to the intent of calling up reservists with 'combat experience,' but very few Russian reservists other than those now serving in Ukraine have any combat experience.""The Russian military likely called up the most combat-ready reserves in that pre-war mobilization effort, which suggests that the current partial mobilization will begin by drawing on less combat-ready personnel from the outset," the ISW wrote.
If this is the case, the partial mobilization won't shift the tide of the war and"will thus not deprive Ukraine of the opportunity to liberate more of its occupied territory into and through the winter," according to the ISW.
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