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DALLAS - The outbreak of military conflict in the Middle East may leave central bankers battling new inflationary trends as well as deal a blow to economic confidence at a time when they had expressed growing hope about containing the price surge sparked by the pandemic and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
"It’s too early to say" what the implications may be, though oil and equity markets may see immediate fallout, Agustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements, said in a presentation to the National Association for Business Economics. "The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently.
Federal Reserve officials have cited recent high energy prices as a possible risk to their outlook of gradually easing inflation, and also said that they felt the U.S. economy was likely to avoid a recession - absent some sort of unexpected, outside shock.
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