Pundits keep misrepresenting how Conservatives fared in recent byelections
In Coyne’s estimation, “Poilievre’s hard-edged approach isn’t working, where it needs to work. It may serve to inflate Conservative margins in seats they already hold. But it is costing them crucial votes in winnable swing ridings.”
Let’s take a deep dive into what really happened on June 19. The Liberals held two ridings, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount and Winnipeg South Centre. The latter has been in Liberal hands almost constantly since 1988, represented by MPs like Lloyd Axworthy and Anita Neville. Conservative Joyce Bateman is the only politician to have interrupted this streak, beating Neville in a close race in 2011 and losing decisively to Jim Carr in 2015. Carr won nearly 60 per cent of the vote in that election, and attained 45 per cent in 2019 and 2021.
For their part, the Conservatives held two ridings, Portage—Lisgar and Oxford. The former has been controlled by right-of-centre parties since it was established in 1997. It was held by then-Reform MP Jake Hoeppner, then-Canadian Alliance/Conservative MP Brian Pallister and, most recently, Conservative MP Candice Bergen. The only close result happened in the riding’s first contest when Hoeppner beat, as it happens, then-PC candidate Pallister.
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