Mets vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds — July 9

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Mets vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds — July 9
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In a series finale that might bring back bad memories for Mets fans, Max Scherzer will take on Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres.

When Musgrove squared off against the Mets in the playoffs last year, he struck out five over seven frames and allowed just two baserunners. I think he should be more than capable of racking up five again here in what should be a winning effort.

It’s true that the Mets’ strikeout rate over the last two weeks stands at a respectable 21.7%, but this is a team that on the whole has been far less disciplined than it was last year. Against a better offense, five strikeouts in seven innings was somewhat impressive. It should be easy to attain here.in this spot. He has a .286 lifetime batting average against Scherzer and has been one of the most consistent hitters for San Diego.

As for the total, I still trust Scherzer to keep this game in a somewhat manageable place. Even in giving up three home runs last time out, the right-hander still only yielded four earned runs and managed to punch out eight or more for a fourth straight game. The home runs have been an issue for Scherzer, but it’s not as if he’s compounded that problem by scattering hits and walks. With that, I would lean towards the Under here as my favorite play on the total.

The Mets, once the kings of contact, rank 15th in contact rate over the last two weeks. They’re sporting a 119 wRC+, which is heavily influenced by an influx of power, but that’s probably not the best way to beat Musgrove. His barrel rate is an incredibly low 5.2% and his hard hit rate of 30.2% puts him among the game’s elites. He simply won’t be surrendering many home runs here.

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