Our model uses a mixture of historical fundamentals and bias-corrected polling data. It shows Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump
ago, Donald Trump’s odds of winning a second term had never looked better. After an easy acquittal in his impeachment trial, his approval rating had reached its highest level in three years, and was approaching the upper-40s range that delivered re-election to George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Unemployment was at a 50-year low, setting him up to take credit for a strong economy.
Given all this uncertainty, it is tempting to conclude that it is too early for predictions, and call the election a virtual toss-up. That is the view of bettors, who currently make Mr Biden a bare 55-45 favourite. Yet a hard look at the data and at history suggests that this is too generous to Mr Trump.’s first-ever statistical forecast of an American presidential race, which we launch this week and will update every day until the election, gives Mr Biden an 82% chance of victory.
Our analysis begins with “fundamentals”, or structural factors that shape the public’s choices. Predictably, when presidents have high approval ratings, their parties’ candidates tend to get more votes . Incumbents seeking re-election also fare better if the economy does well, though growing partisan polarisation has shrunk this effect. And voters seem to have an “eight-year itch”: only once since term limits were enacted in 1951 has the same party won three times in a row.
Such fundamentals, however, are only a starting-point. Early in a campaign, they tend to predict final results far more reliably than polls do. Eventually, polls reveal whether voters are indeed reacting to the candidates as the fundamentals imply. Reports of Mr Trump’s vice-like grip on the battleground states are a bit premature. States’ partisan leans relative to each other shift frequently. For example, in 2012 Barack Obama won Iowa by six percentage points while losing Texas by 16. Four years later, Mrs Clinton came closer to winning Texas than Iowa. Such volatility means advantages in the electoral college can be short-lived.
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