Trump-Harris isn’t the only match-up with significant global consequences
Japan ’s election could prompt the next market gyrations in a year in which countries housing half the world’s population will have voted. But markets remain fixated on the U.S. presidential election - the race that counts most for investors and global leaders alike.DEVELOPED MARKETSAn uncertain outcome in Sunday’s election could generate further shocks for markets still reeling from July’s surprise Bank of Japan rate hike.
Traders are taking seriously the chances of a Trump win, which could spark higher tariffs. That has stoked support for the dollar, as consumer price rises could reduce U.S. rate cuts. Since then, Labour’s pledge not to hike workers’ taxes has generated fears of raids on investment gains draining more capital from listed companies and Reeves has also hinted borrowing will rise.Austria’s eurosceptic, Russia-friendly Freedom Party won September’s parliamentary election, the latest far-right wave to hit the continent, disrupting fiscal policymaking as major economies stagnate.
And German political parties are trying to keep the far-right Alternative for Germany from power in Thuringia after it won the state’s election last month.A pension reform plan on the ballot in Uruguay’s Oct. 27 election that would lower the retirement age has knocked the peso as investors worry about its fiscal cost.
Romanian elections in November and December repeat the Russia versus Europe narrative. The hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians, against military aid for Ukraine, polls in second place.Bulgarians head to the polls on Sunday in the seventh snap election inside four years.A snap parliamentary election on Nov. 14 could determine whether newly elected President Anura Kumara Dissanayake can make good on campaign promises to reduce taxes and help the poor.
Japan Dissanayake Russia Mexico Referendum Yen Trump Thuringia Freedom Party Mozambique
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