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It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia as markets cast aside concerns about rate hikes, and go straight to pricing in early cuts. All the major equity indices are well into the green with South Korea surging 4%, helped by the re-imposition of a short-selling ban.
Perhaps just as important was the strength of productivity that suggests unemployment does not need to rise as much as in the past to keep inflation restrained. Analysts already note that unemployment has climbed to 3.9%, from a trough of 3.4%, and similar-sized increases in the past have sometimes preceded recessions.
Futures imply an 80% probability the ECB will begin easing as soon as April, and the first BoE rate cut is almost fully priced for August. An outlier here is the Reserve Bank of Australia which might well resume hiking on Tuesday after four months of steady policy outcomes. Analysts are almost all-in for a rise to 4.35%, but the market implies it could be a coin toss, setting the stage for some fireworks whatever happens.
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