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Battered Treasury bonds caught a bid over the past 24 hours on surprisingly soft U.S. jobs data and the biggest recoil in oil prices this year - but risk premia are mounting on a worrying cocktail of fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty.
Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. At $83 this morning, it's at its lowest since August following signs of building U.S. inventories, a lack of new supply cuts at the OPEC+ meeting on Wednesday and the soft U.S. jobs news.
There was some follow through on Asia's bourses. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. The dollar found its feet after it was knocked back yesterday too. And the whole mess just compounds concerns about fiscal policy going into an election year and at a time when deficits and debt servicing costs are soaring.
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Marketmind: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oilBattered Treasury bonds caught a bid over the past 24 hours on surprisingly soft U.S. jobs data and the biggest recoil in oil prices this year - but risk premia are mounting on a worrying cocktail of fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty. Any signs of a crack in the jobs market may be enough to stay the Federal Reserve's hand in raising policy rates one last time this year - as many Fed officials still suggest it might. Fed futures to the end of next year all fell back on Thursday and now see less than a 50% chance of another hike in the cycle.
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