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Investors wishing to put a dark October behind them first need to negotiate Wednesday's Fed policy decision, Treasury's debt sale plans and the beginnings of a slew of labor market updates.
The problem is the BOJ may have loosened its 10-year bond buying target rate of 1% - but it's still committed to capping yields around there and did so yet again on Wednesday in another emergency operation that dragged yields back to 0.95%. Despite the U.S. Treasury forecasting a lower fourth-quarter borrowing need than previously flagged, the tension in the bond market remains ahead of its detailed future refinancing plans due later on Wednesday. Key will be the amount of this year's whopping $1.6 trillion of bill sales it will have to roll into longer-term debt securities through 2024.
But U.S. consumer confidence has softened, oil prices are falling again and the overseas demand picture is weakening. Chinese factory activity unexpectedly contracted in October, a private survey showed on Wednesday, adding to a downbeat official manufacturing purchasing managers' index on Tuesday. Beyond Tokyo, stocks elsewhere were more mixed and Wall Street futures pulled back slightly after the S&P500 recorded its first consecutive daily gains in three weeks. The new month saw a big retreat in the Vix volatility gauge to below 18.
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