Lockdowns prevented around 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries, according to a new modelling study.
PARIS, FRANCE -- Lockdowns prevented around 3.1 million deaths in 11 European countries, according to a new modelling study published Monday, as most nations tiptoe out of the strict measures to halt the spread of the new coronavirus.
Researchers also calculated that the interventions had caused the reproduction number -- how many people someone with the virus infects -- to drop by an average of 82 percent, to below 1.0. That compares with Belgium, with the highest infection rate of the countries at eight percent, and Spain, where some 5.5 per cent of the population, or 2.6 million people, were estimated to have been infected.The authors said that since interventions such as restrictions on public events and school closures were imposed in quick succession, it is difficult to tease out the effect of each one separately.
The authors acknowledged that one limitation of their model was that it assumes each measure had the same effect on all countries, whereas in reality "there was variation in how effective lockdown was in different countries".
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