LNG Canada Phase 2 Expansion Boosts Canadian Gas Stocks

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LNG Canada Phase 2 Expansion Boosts Canadian Gas Stocks
LNG Canada, First Quantum Minerals, Cobre Panama

LNG Canada's green-lit Phase 2 expansion is set to benefit Canadian natural gas producers. Learn which stocks analysts see as winners.

LNG Canada, a consortium of global energy companies, has green-lit Phase 2 of its west coast facility in Kitimat, British Columbia, that ships liquefied natural gas to Asia. The decision, announced in late September 2026, represents a significant milestone for the Canadian natural gas sector and signals growing confidence in Canada's energy investment environment, according to analysts at Scotia Capital Markets.

LNG Canada Phase 2 Spurs Optimism

Scotia Capital Markets analysts led by Robert Hope said in a note on Sept. 29 that the Phase 2 expansion could generate meaningfully stronger returns than the initial build, which was materially impacted by cost overruns. The team highlighted several companies that could benefit from the shift in sentiment. Key beneficiaries included Advantage Energy Ltd., Birchcliff Energy Ltd., Peyto Exploration and Development Corp., and Paramount Resources Ltd.

The expansion of Coastal GasLink, which supplies LNG Canada, was also given the go-ahead. TC Energy owns a 35 per cent stake in Coastal GasLink, and Scotia analysts believe the expansion phase supports the company's shares. Hope and his team predict that rising gas production will spill over into areas such as transportation and storage, extraction, and fractionation, making continued LNG development a positive catalyst for the sector.

The project's approval comes amid a broader push to accelerate energy infrastructure in Canada. As a project of national interest, the pipeline associated with LNG Canada is now on an accelerated regulatory track, moving it closer to construction. However, CIBC Capital Markets analysts noted on Oct. 1 that the project still faces hurdles, including the requirement for Indigenous consultation.

First Quantum Recovers After Panama Setback

First Quantum Minerals Ltd. saw its shares whipsawed this week, falling 31 per cent on Wednesday before recovering to close 15 per cent in the red. The drop followed news of a Panamanian commission's recommendations regarding the company's giant copper mine in the country, Cobre Panama. Investors initially latched onto references to an orderly closure, but several analysts said the focus should be more on the recommendation that the company reopen Cobre Panama under a framework that would self-finance the site's future closure and rehabilitation.

Shares have since regained just over three per cent as of Sept. 30, with many analysts reiterating their 12-month price targets for First Quantum shares on the belief that the findings were not as damaging to the company as initially believed. Sam Crittenden, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note on Sept. 30 that a reasonable deal can be reached that benefits both Panama and First Quantum, although uncertainty remains around a number of variables including ownership, taxes, royalties, and the closure plan and timing. Crittenden has a price target of $52 and an outperform/speculative risk rating on the stock. Shares closed Friday at $39.35.

TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison joined other analysts this week in saying the key recommendation is a negotiated restart for the giant copper mine. Hutchison maintained his price target of $47. First Quantum has a price target of $48.96 based on the calls of 24 analysts, according to Bloomberg.

RBC Top 30 List Updates for Q4

RBC Capital Markets has updated its Top 30 list of best ideas as markets head into the final stretch of 2026. For the fourth quarter, RBC analysts dropped names including Diageo and pharmaceutical company Merck & Co. Inc. The list is closely watched by investors for insights into RBC's highest-conviction stock picks.

Meanwhile, the broader market has been focused on energy infrastructure developments. The Pacific Link pipeline, which was recently designated a project of national interest, could see benefits for companies associated with it. CIBC analyst Robert Catellier said in a note on Oct. 1 that while the project faces hurdles, successful Indigenous participation and economic partnership are essential for project advancement. Other hurdles include the economics of the pipeline and costs associated with the Pathways carbon capture and storage requirements. Inflation and rising interest rates could also balloon the overall cost of the project, estimated at $35 billion to $45 billion, by another $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion at rates of 6.5 per cent, CIBC said.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. has the most direct exposure to the project with a 10 per cent interest, though that remains subject to a final investment decision. More broadly, CIBC said Keyera and AltaGas are best positioned to benefit from increased oilsands production, while Gibson Energy Inc. could win on infrastructure growth. Other names that should experience an indirect tailwind include TC Energy and Rockpoint Gas Storage Inc., according to TD Cowen analyst John Mould. On the negative side, the project could compete with other energy infrastructure projects for limited capital and resources.

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LNG Canada First Quantum Minerals Cobre Panama RBC Capital Markets TC Energy Coastal Gaslink Canadian Natural Gas

 

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